World Enters ‘Danger Zone’ With Super El Niño, UN Says
World Enters ‘Danger Zone’ With Super El Niño, UN Says
According to the organization, the phenomenon could be the strongest in 70 years and is expected to last until February 2027.
September 3, 2026 | 5:52 a.m.
In an alert issued on Thursday, the United Nations said the world has entered a “danger zone for extreme weather events” because of the impact of El Niño. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the phenomenon is beginning to be felt globally.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says it could be the strongest El Niño in more than 70 years and could last at least until February 2027.
Experts say El Niño will raise temperatures in some areas, adding to the increase in global heat caused by human-driven climate change.
“El Niño is intensifying before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is navigating uncharted waters, and those waters are warming,” Guterres said.
According to the agency, El Niño “is firmly established and will intensify in the coming months, with major impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of flooding, drought and extreme heat.”
Forecasts from the WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an “exceptionally high probability, close to 100%,” that El Niño will persist until February 2027. This is the first time a WMO update on El Niño/La Niña has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong consensus within the organization’s extensive network.
Driven by exceptionally warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to intensify further in the coming months, reaching a very strong intensity before peaking later this year, with climate impacts extending into 2027.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures continue to increase, and the world is in the danger zone for extreme weather events. The race is now between growing risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” Guterres said.
“El Niño has the potential to have a devastating impact on communities and economies around the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
According to her, this exceptional El Niño requires exceptional preparedness and response.
“Never before, in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization, have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, which are on the front lines providing forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.
Drought in Northern Brazil, Unusual Rainfall Patterns in Other Areas
Although the impacts on the global climate are likely to be felt through 2027, the World Meteorological Organization expects significant changes in precipitation patterns in the coming months.
Drier-than-normal conditions are forecast across large parts of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America, increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires.
On Thursday, the number of vessels crossing the Panama Canal will be reduced by more than 10% in anticipation of declining rainfall.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—the core region of El Niño—are already well above average, one of the phenomenon’s defining signs, and continue to rise.
The Niño 3.4 Index intensified considerably, rising from an average of +1.5°C above normal during the May-to-July 2026 period to +2.0°C above normal in July. Weekly values increased even further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately +2.2°C to +2.6°C above average, indicating continued intensification.
“Even more exceptional warmth is present beneath the ocean surface. In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August,” the update said.
Surface and subsurface ocean conditions provide strong support for the continuation of El Niño and for the potential for further strengthening in the coming months, according to the update.
Original reporting: Jamil Chade
Source: ICL Notícias
Original article:
Read the original article at ICL Notícias
Cruzando fronteiras com refugiados, testemunhando crimes contra a humanidade, viajando com papas ou cobrindo cúpulas diplomáticas, Jamil Chade percorreu mais de 70 países. Com seu escritório na sede da ONU em Genebra, ele foi eleito o segundo jornalista mais admirado do Brasil em 2025. Chade foi indicado 4 vezes como finalista do prêmio Jabuti. Ele é embaixador do Instituto Adus, membro do conselho do Instituto Vladimir Herzog e foi um dos pesquisadores da Comissão Nacional da Verdade.
